Crisis on high

At the top of the world a climate disaster is unfolding that will impact the lives of more than 1 billion people.

By China correspondent Matthew Carney, photography by Wayne McAllister

Deep in the Himalayas sits a remote research station that is tracking an alarming trend in climate change, with implications that could disrupt the lives of more than 1 billion people and pitch the most populated region of the world into chaos.
The station lies in the heart of a region called the Third Pole, an area that contains the largest area of frozen water outside of the North Pole and South Pole.

Despite its relative anonymity, the Third Pole is vitally important; it is the source of Asia's 10 largest rivers including the Yellow, the Yangzi, the Mekong, the Irrawaddy and the Ganges — and their fertile deltas.

Flows from the glaciers that give the pole its name support roughly 1.3 billion people in China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan — and the glaciers are melting fast.

Chinese authorities have opened up a remote research station on the Qinghai Tibetan Plateau and revealed alarming research on the pace of global warming.
Half a century of research shows the temperature has increased by 1.5 degrees in the area, more than double the global average. More than 500 glaciers have completely disappeared, and the biggest ones are retreating rapidly.

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Global warming could stave off next ice age for 100,000 years

Global warming is likely to disrupt a natural cycle of ice ages and contribute to delaying the onset of the next big freeze until about 100,000 years from now, scientists have suggested.

In the past million years, the world has had about 10 ice ages before swinging back to warmer conditions like the present.

In the last ice age that ended 12,000 years ago, ice sheets blanketed what is now Canada, northern Europe and Siberia.

In a new explanation for the long-lasting plunges in global temperatures that cause ice ages, scientists pointed to a combination of long-term shifts in the Earth's orbit around the sun, together with levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

They said the planet seemed naturally on track to escape an ice age for the next 50,000 years, an unusually long period of warmth, according to the study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and published in the journal Nature.

But rising man-made greenhouse gas emissions since the Industrial Revolution began in the 18th century could mean the balmy period will last for 100,000 years.

The findings suggest human influences "will make the initiation of the next ice age impossible over a time period comparable to the duration of previous glacial cycles".

"Humans have the power to change the climate on geological timescales," lead author Dr Andrey Ganopolski said.

He said the lingering impacts of greenhouse gases in a far distant future did not in any way affect the urgency of cutting emissions now that are blamed for causing downpours, heat waves and rising seas.
"The earlier we stop, the better," Dr Ganopolski said.

Almost 200 governments agreed a deal in Paris last month to shift from fossil fuels to combat climate change.

Last week, another group of scientists said humanity had become a force in shaping the planet's geology and suggested an "Anthropocene epoch" began in the mid-20th century with factors such as nuclear tests and industrialisation.

"Like no other force on the planet, ice ages have shaped the global environment," co-author Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber said.

Professor Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute, suggested a new epoch might instead be called the "Deglacial".

Some past studies have suggested that global warming can delay ice ages, but the current study is more specific.

It indicates the start of past ice ages coincided with low levels of solar energy reaching the Earth in northern summers, like in current times. But an ice age had not begun because of relatively high, apparently natural, levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since before the Industrial Revolution.

Ice age cycles caused by sun plus carbon dioxide
Ice age cycles are caused by regular cycles in the Earth's orbit, amplified by factors such as changes in ice coverage and carbon dioxide, the University of Reading's Professor Richard Allen explained.

"Earth's orbit around the sun is oval in shape but this becomes more circular every 100,000 years and more particularly so every 400,000 year," he said.

Professor Allen said the world was currently in a mild interlude coinciding with a near-circular orbit like one 400,000 years ago when the mild interglacial lasted longer than usual.

"We know that our current warm period will last many tens of thousands of years even without elevated concentrations of greenhouse gases associated with human activity," he said.

But the delay in the timing of an ice age is of less concern than the immediate impact of climate change, Professor Allen said.

"The many tens of thousands of years after which the next ice age may commence is very long compared to the appearance of modern human societies and is not worth worrying about compared to immediate concerns about damaging human-caused climate change expected over the coming decades if no action is takes to mitigate this likelihood," he said.

ABC/Reuters

Gaia and our lack of knowledge...

A very brilliant and talented Doctor once said to me about Global Warming.

"There are so many factors, so many Earth/Nature systems that have not been awakened in this, that prediction of what will happen is too variable."

He was not dissing Global Warming but explaining the uncertainty of what will actually happen, will Gaia react, and how?"

This story reminded me of his prediction.

Giant melting icebergs could be slowing climate change by absorbing carbon: researchers.

 By Bridget Brennan

Scientists have made the surprising discovery that giant melting icebergs could actually be slowing global warming.

 

Satellite images show that as giant icebergs melt, they leave behind trails of nutrients.

The nutrients stimulate growth of marine life, which leads to million of tonnes of carbon being taken from the atmosphere.

It is a process known as 'ocean fertilisation'.

Professor Grant Bigg, an expert in oceanography from the University of Sheffield, was part of the research team that analysed satellite images of about 17 giant icebergs in the Southern Ocean.

"It was a big surprise," he said.

"When you look at the giant icebergs, the influence of these meltwater nutrients is actually four to 10 times as large as we would have expected from looking at the ordinary sized icebergs."

Rising sea levels still a 'major worry'

Giant icebergs are at least 18 kilometres long, and their nutrient-rich plume can reach for up to 1,000 kilometres.

The research team found that the giant icebergs absorbed around 10-40 million tonnes of carbon a year by generating floating environments.

That promotes the growth of algae and other tiny organisms which can extract carbon from the atmosphere.

"We estimated that somewhere between 5 and 10 per cent of all the carbon, which is exported from the surface waters of the Southern Ocean down to the deep ocean, ought to come from these iceberg plumes fertilising the water and the phytoplankton growing and dying as a result."

Professor Bigg said there was likely to be an increase in ocean fertilisation as more ice melted in Antarctica.

But while that might have an impact on greenhouse gas emissions, it will do nothing to slow sea level rise.

"That's one of the major worries," he said.

"The icebergs themselves when they're out in the open ocean probably have this relatively good effect. But the freshwater also will change the ocean currents … and that could have an impact on the way the Southern Ocean works."

Lenticular 'UFO' clouds over Cape Town and other weird cloud formations

Lenticular clouds over Cape Town on November 8, 2015.

South Africans have been treated to an eerie cloud formation known as lenticular clouds.
The so-called "UFO clouds" appeared in the sky over the weekend in the city of Cape Town.

Lenticular clouds form when high winds blow over rough terrain, such as mountains and valleys.

Take a look at some of the photos from social media, as well as other weird formations clouds can take.

The unusual meteorological sighting happened on November 8 and citizens in the South African city rushed to the streets to gaze up at the natural spectacular.

'The aliens have been moniting [sic] cape town for years now,' Instagram user monre44 said.

However, keen to dispel rumors that the formation was an out-of-this-world visit, CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam said they are 'common clouds' known scientifically as 'stratocumulus standing lenticularis'. 

They are saucer- or lens-shaped clouds, which are typically stationary in nature.

On account of their typical shapes, lenticular clouds have been mistakenly identified as Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) in the past.

Social media users were eager to photograph the beautiful daytime cloud formations and post their images online. 

'Right now above my head! The strangest most amazing UFO shaped clouds,' wrote amazed Instagram user called Arthur Albert. 

Shocked Twitter user Monique Jackson added: 'Weird UFO clouds over Cape Town.'

While impressed Di Brown posted on Instagram: 'The cloud looks like a tornado in pause mode.

Really very weird skies today.

NOAA's Weather in Focus Photo Contest-Some Photos...

Freezing rain attempts to halt spring in this image captured by Mike Shelby, from Elkridge, Maryland, taking home second place in the "smartphone images" category. (Credit: Mike Shelby.)

With a Bang by Bob Larson, Prescott, AZ
NOAA describes this category: "Remember safety first, but sometimes weather can develop in the blink of an eye supplying amazing photographic opportunities. Images depict both the subtle and extreme power of weather and climate, including images of extreme drought, floods, thunderstorms, tornadoes as well as snowscapes and landscapes."

Proton arc over Lake Superior by Ken William, Clio, MI

 Stars behind the storm by Brad Goddard, Orion, IL

Oxygen levels key to animal evolution

Stuart Gary
ABC

Atmospheric oxygen levels during the billion years or so prior to the rise of animals were far too low for complex life forms to develop, according to a new study.

The findings, reported in the journal Science, imply that the appearance of diverse animal life on Earth about 800 million years ago, was triggered by increases in oxygen levels - and not just genetic innovations in individual organisms.

"No one really doubted that oxygen levels were low, but how low is the real surprise," says one of the study's authors Dr Peter McGoldrick of the University of Tasmania.

"Our work shows those levels were just 0.1 per cent of present atmospheric levels, which is significant from an evolutionary point of view because biologists believe that complex multicellular life forms require much more oxygen than 0.1 per cent."

This is the first time anyone has been able to quantify the levels of oxygen in the atmosphere during the mid-Proterozoic period between 0.8 and 1.8 billion years ago, he says.

McGoldrick describes this period in Earth's history as the 'boring billion', when life remained largely constant and unchanging between the appearance of complex cells around 2 billion years ago, and the sudden diversification of multicellular animals about 800 million years ago.

Scientists already knew that oxygen began to accumulate in the atmosphere after cyanobacteria began using photosynthesis to produce oxygen over three billion years ago.

So they wondered why animal species didn't flourish during the boring billion year stretch leading up to the end of the Proterozoic, when most researchers thought there was plenty of oxygen.

"We knew oxygen levels had gone up over all, but we didn't know if it had gone up to 1, 10 or 40 per cent of present atmospheric levels," says McGoldrick.

"This explains why complex animals don't appear in the rock record until maybe 750 to 800 million years ago, there simply wasn't enough oxygen for the metabolic things they need to do."

The increase in atmospheric oxygen levels wasn't constant - spikes and drops were caused by fluctuations in bacterial activity and geochemical events such as tectonic movements and weathering.

Chrome key

Oxygen levels in the atmosphere were determined by examining chromium isotopes in ironstone samples. This provided information on oxygen levels for the billion or so years leading up to the 'Cambrian explosion' - when most major animal groups appeared on the planet.

The samples came from China, Canada, the United States, and 1.4 billion year old iron ore deposits from the Sherwin formation near Borroloola in the Northern Territory.

 

Climate change: Sea levels steady for 6,000 years before rapid rise in past 150 years, study reveals

Australian National University (ANU) Professor Kurt Lambeck led the research into sea levels.

By Carl Smith

Sea levels remained steady for thousands of years before recent rapid rises, a study led by the Australian National University shows.

The study looked at the fluctuation of ocean levels over the past 35,000 years, based on ice volume changes around the world.

The researchers have described the study as the most comprehensive paper of its kind looking at the period.

ANU's Professor Kurt Lambeck said sea levels were oscillating by no more than 20 centimetres over several millennia.

"In the last 6,000 years before the modern onset of sea level rise, the sea level has been quite stable," he said.

"We see no evidence for oscillations in sea level greater than say plus or minus 25 or 30 centimetres, on timescales of 100 years or longer - there's just no evidence for that."

But he said there has been a rapid upward trend accompanying global industrialisation.

"For the last 150 years we've been seeing this increase, this rising sea level, at a rate of a few milimetres per year and in our older records we do not see similar behaviour," he said.

He said comparing the historical data with recent data from tidal gauges shows an increasing rate of sea level rise in recent times.

"We really have established the background signal from say 150 years ago to 6,000 years ago, and we can compare that with the tide gauge record," Professor Lambeck said.

"What we see in the tide gauges we don't see in the past record, so there's something going on today that wasn't going on before.

"I think that is clearly the impact of rising temperatures."

He said increasing temperatures have been documented to have clear effects on sea levels.

"Both because the thermal expansion of the oceans, the oceans are warming up, that's reasonably well documented, and it's the melting primarily up until now of the mountain glacier systems, so those two contributions are probably the most important part to what's happened in the last 100 years," Professor Lambeck said.

The study will create a comprehensive historical background for sea levels so researchers can better monitor current trends.

Recent sea level rise 'unusual'

Climate change

The climate of England has been characterized as generally damp and relatively sunless but, as every native knows, the weather is as various as the land. In the south-east the summers are warm and the winters are cold, while in the north-west the winters are mild and the summers are cool. In the north-west four and a half hours of sunshine light up an average July day, while on the south coast six and a half hours can be anticipated; the western seaboard attracts 40 per cent more rainfall than the eastern. The predominant wind of autumn and of winter is from the south-west; in the spring it is the east. This was the weather that created a land of damp forests of oak and ash, of marshes and heath wrapped in mist. In the north and the west lay the moors and the mountains, where the soil was thin. This was the land of pasture rather than of crops, and the local farmers grew only as much corn as they needed for themselves. The south and east were the lowlands, with gradual undulations in the rich earth; this was ground as fit for corn as for cattle. It was the territory of ‘mixed farming’.

In the history of England these patterns of climate are of the utmost importance; if there is a drop in temperature of two degrees, as in the period from 500 to 300 BC, the prospect of adequate harvests in the north is noticeably curtailed. A difference of one degree made a failure of the harvest seven times more likely. In this period, then, we see the abandonment of upland farms and settlements. The southern land was warmer, and more stable; it was the home of the plentiful harvest, and the general dampness meant that crops could even be grown on lighter soils where sand and chalk prevailed. It is a general truth, therefore, that in the south-east the land was devoted to wheat whereas in the north it was given over to oats. But important regional variations were still found. Oxfordshire and north-east Suffolk grew wheat, whereas Norfolk grew more rye. Oats were the main crop in Lancashire, while rye was dominant in Yorkshire. Wheat and barley shared the ascendancy in Wiltshire whereas, in the rainier country west of that shire, barley predominated.

The people of the south were wealthier if not healthier than their counterparts in the north. So the climate is active in human history. It may also be that the drier east creates human communities different from those of the rainier west; marked contrasts of social systems in the first millennium BC are in fact evident, with small centres of lordly power in the west and more scattered settlements in the east. The isolated farmhouse and the small hamlet were characteristic of the north and west; the village and the manorial system of common cultivation were more usual in the south and east.

At the time of the Roman occupation the weather was warmer than at any period in subsequent history, but this was succeeded by colder and wetter conditions by the end of the fourth century. For ten years, beginning in AD 536, there was a very low level of sunlight; this would have been a time of dearth and famine, hitherto unrecorded. It might also be noted that Alfred was credited with the invention of a clock that allowed him to tell the time when the prevailing fogs obscured the sun.

The climate of 1009 and 1010 was recorded by a Benedictine monk, Byrhtferth, who dwelled in East Anglia; the winter lasted from 7 November to 6 February, being cold and moist; the spring from 7 February to 8 May was moist and hot; summer from 9 May to 6 August was hot and dry; autumn from 7 August to 6 November was dry and cold. He was only one of the clerics who kept a detailed record of the conditions of the weather.

The eleventh and twelve centuries were in fact warmer than those immediately preceding them, but a deterioration of climate took place in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries; the annals of these later centuries also mention the increasing incidence of floods and droughts, suggesting greater instability. Hard frosts lasted into spring, and violent gales brought down the trees of the forests. The Thames froze in the winter of 1309–10, and the years 1315 and 1316 were marked by endless rain. The harvests failed, and the dead were buried in common graves. It was a time of epidemic disease. Crime rates rose proportionately.

The increase of rainfall, in the fourteenth century, is marked by the construction of drainage ditches and house platforms; church floors were raised, and the lower halves of some villages were deserted. The carpenter in Chaucer’s ‘The Miller’s Tale’ reveals an obsessive fear of another Great Flood covering the earth. The extraordinary wind of 14 January 1362 was widely believed to be a harbinger of the Day of Judgment. In the medieval period the weather is the lord of all. Outer weather creates inner weather. It would be possible to write the history of England as the history of the English climate.